COVID-19 Conflict Risk Model: Food Security Version
(Beta version 1.1 - April 17th, 2020)

This is an experimental algorithm showing where our measurement of COVID-19 conflict risk coincides with food price shocks and food insecurity, at a resolution of 20x20 kilometers (please see this brief for discussion of results). It has four elements:

1. Our COVID-19 risk score, which uses 22 social, political and health indicators to show communities where COVID-19 and inequality may interact to create conflict. The COVID-19 risk algorithm is explained here.

2. A metric showing how similar recent food price movements are to those seen in a basket of 14 different countries where there was unrest during the 2007-8 food price crisis.

3. A derivative of the recently-published Proteus composite index, which uses 21 different indicators to judge food insecurity. See here for details.

4. A mild weighting scheme that gives greater weight to areas with higher population densities.

The score returns risk categories and scores for communities (20x20 kilometer squares) or districts (administrative units). Please email coronavirus@tmpsystems.net with any questions.

To be clear, this model does not refer to the risk of transmission of COVID-19, which we are not qualified to judge, but rather, the risk of collective, violent opposition caused by COVID-19 in conjunction with latent social, economic and demographic conditions.

For a list of indicators and sources, please see this document. We do not have sufficient data to score all locations. We are working to improve the dataset as fast as possible. If you have an idea for a dataset we could use, please contact us at coronavirus@tmpsystems.net.

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