COVID-19 Conflict Risk Model

The interactive map below shows the results of a geospatial model TMP Systems has constructed to identify communities, districts or countries where there is a risk of COVID-19 causing conflict. It is free to use.

Our paper “Inequality, COVID-19 and Conflict” explains the model and its implications:

Summary version - 7 pages
Full version - 25 pages, plus appendices
Recommendations for health interventions - 14 pages, plus appendices
Food security update - Updated model and 6 page explanatory report

We also provide in-depth analyses of COVID-19 impacts for a range of institutions. Click here to find out more, or email us at to submit a request.

TMP Systems COVID-19 Risk Map, Version 1.2, April 9th, 2020

To be clear, this model does not refer to the risk of transmission of COVID-19, which we are not qualified to judge, but rather, the risk of collective, violent opposition caused by COVID-19 in conjunction with latent social, economic and demographic conditions.

For a list of indicators and sources, please see this document. We do not have sufficient data to score all locations. We are working to improve the dataset as fast as possible. If you have an idea for a dataset we could use, please contact us at

Turn off all layers to view help information.